When uncertainty hits, the instinct to pause can feel responsible. Freeze budgets. Wait for clarity. And then maybe resume doing consumer research. 

But if the last few years taught us anything, it’s this: waiting is often the most expensive move you can make.

Lessons from 2020 

I know most of us would rather not relive 2020, but if we think about what happened that year from a research perspective, it offers a lot of great lessons. 

As the pandemic hit, many brands immediately froze their budgets for market research and customer insights. Just as consumer behavior was rapidly reshaping itself, many brands decided to...wait.

By the time teams restarted their engines, shoppers had already moved on — and the gap was painful to close.

Today, with tariff-related policies fueling fresh economic anxiety, that same hesitation is creeping back in. And according to Jonathan Dore, EVP at Reach3 Insights, that’s a mistake no one should make again.

In his latest article for Total Retail, Jon argues why waiting to do research is NOT the right move during times of uncertainty. 

Same pressure, different emotions

At Reach3 Insights, we've seen firsthand how pausing research can negatively impact brands and their revenue. So, to help Reach3 clients and partners navigate the changes related to tariff-related policies, we've set up Trade Winds, an ongoing research initiative tracking how customer behaviors change. 

And here's what we're seeing: the changes are profound, fast and sometimes unexpected. 

According to our research, today’s economic stress doesn’t feel like 2020. Then, shoppers were anxious. Now, they’re tired.

Seventy-three percent of Americans report feeling negatively about the economy. Grocery bills are up for nearly three-quarters of households. And nine in ten shoppers have changed how they buy. But instead of panic behaviors, we’re seeing quiet recalibration: fewer snacks, more coupon clipping, and strategic trade-offs across channels.

As Jon puts it, “People aren’t panicking — they’re optimizing.”

That emotional shift matters. A frustrated shopper behaves differently than an anxious one. They’re quicker to cut brands that don’t deliver value, and far less forgiving when prices rise without explanation.

Loyalty hasn’t disappeared — but it’s under pressure

For retail brands, here’s the paradox: despite all this change, only seven percent of shoppers have switched their primary grocery store.

That tells us loyalty still exists — but it’s fragile.

Price, value, and trust are now the battlegrounds. Shoppers are willing to shop around more, but they haven’t abandoned their anchors. Instead, they’re building rotations: club stores for bulk, dollar stores for fill-in trips, and traditional grocers for essentials.

"Loyalty isn’t gone — it’s conditional," Jon writes. 

And that conditionality shows up most clearly at the channel level.

Why channels are the real story right now

During COVID, disruption changed what people bought.
Today, it’s changing where they buy.

Reach3’s data shows a growing reliance on dollar stores, club retailers, and multi-store strategies as shoppers stretch their budgets. Even premium and natural brands are feeling the squeeze. But there’s opportunity hiding here too.

Some brands are finding momentum in what one retailer described as “cheap premium” — products that feel elevated, but don’t come with boutique pricing. In a value-driven environment, that positioning can resonate fast.

If you’re only tracking category performance, you’re missing half the picture. Channel behavior is where intent is being reshaped in real time.

The insight lag brands can’t afford to repeat

One of the biggest lessons from 2020 was how dangerous it is to pause listening. When insight teams stopped research, small behavioral signals turned into full-blown shifts before anyone noticed.

Jon's warning is clear: “If you wait for the full picture, you’re already behind.”

Today’s signals — bulk buying, protein prioritization, declining organic spend — may look minor in isolation. But together, they point to a shopper who is actively reprioritizing. Brands that stay close to those decisions can adapt faster. Those that don’t risk reacting months too late.

How research can provide clarity during uncertainty

What does it take to make sense of this moment? Jon shared core concepts that retail brands should think about: 

• Keep research running. Uncertainty is when listening matters most. Whether it's through an insight community or a Voice of Market solution, make sure there's a mechanism for you to capture customer feedback in real time and at scale. 
  
  
• Track emotional shifts, not just actions. A frustrated shopper is decisive — and quick to walk away. Customer journey mapping can help you capture the nuances of what this frustration entails. 
  
  
• Understand trade-offs. Shoppers naturally cut back during economic uncertainty. And as Jon says, "Understanding what gets deprioritized, and what doesn’t, can help you position your brand as essential." 
  
  
• Revisit channel strategy. If shoppers are rotating stores, know where you fit — and why.
  
  
• Clarify your value story. Don’t leave “worth it” up to interpretation. A bit of in-the-moment message testing can validate whether how you communicate value is resonating. 

Bottom line: you can’t steer from the rearview mirror

What we're seeing in 2025 / 2026 isn’t a repeat of 2020 — but it rhymes.

Shoppers are changing again, just more quietly this time. Brands that keep listening, adapting, and responding in real time won’t just weather the disruption — they’ll come out stronger on the other side.

“The biggest risk right now isn’t change — it’s waiting," Jon concludes. 

Looking to work with a top research partner to understand what's changing with your customers and why? Reach out to Reach3 and learn why we are ranked one of the top research consulting firms today.